Amid the Western focus on Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, a subtle albeit powerful transformation has unfolded in the Caucasus, where authoritarian powers have embarked on the expansion and consolidation of their influence. A new reality has emerged where a reactionary Moscow and NATO-member Ankara, once historical adversaries, have formed an alliance with China at the East-West crossroads, consolidating their influence and leaving the West increasingly sidelined. The changing axis of power significantly impacts the regional political landscape, influencing security conditions and necessitating a geopolitical realignment for all South Caucasian states, especially Georgia, a strategic partner of the United States for 15 years and a candidate for EU membership.
As Georgia drifts toward a Moscow-Beijing-Tehran axis, the West faces a stark choice: confront the collapse of its post-Soviet strategy or surrender the Caucasus to authoritarian dominion.
In 2024, the Kremlin-tied Georgian government implemented a subtly designed, anti-Western strategy—a scheme that had been in the making for years: isolating the country from its long-standing Western partners and ultimately redirecting its political orientation towards Russia and China by contravening Article 78 of the Constitution of Georgia, articulating the country’s aspiration to join the European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. The orchestration of this meticulously calculated maneuver took place in the midst of anti-Western rhetoric and a severe political crisis, exacerbated by public mistrust in rent-seeking NGOs, polarized media, and the absence of a proactive, credible, and leadership-driven opposition to effectively challenge the Russian oligarch’s ruling party, “Georgian Dream,” in the parliamentary elections. In the fragmented and uncompetitive political landscape, the ruling party capitalized on the opposition’s incompetence and inability to strengthen its power by manipulation, demagoguery, charlatanism, and utilizing its administrative resources. The crisis allowed “Georgian Dream” to foster cynicism about Western intentions and portray alignment with Russia and China as a more stable and safe path for Georgia, undermining the country’s democratic aspirations.
The issue is further exacerbated by the presence of the disgraced, opportunistic President Salome Zourabichvili, whose term is reaching its end, at the core of the left-wing, ultra-liberal opposition. Her refusal to resign and her efforts to maintain the president exacerbate domestic discontent, eventually contributing to Russia’s interests. It is worth noting that her family has long been associated with ties to the Kremlin’s special services. Georgia’s first president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, identified her husband, Janri Kashia, as the KGB agent and the author of slanderous letters targeting the democratically elected government. The Central Intelligence Agency exposed her uncle, Mikheil Kedia, also known as Mikhail Koeller, as a double agent for the Soviet NKVD while operating within the Abwehr of Nazi Germany and created an extensive file on him, which has been declassified and made available under the Nazi War Crimes Disclosure Act. She herself has been active in Georgian politics since 2004 with obvious backing from Moscow.
From the outset, it was evident that the Georgian Dream Party, established by Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, was another Moscow-backed project designed to replace its Kremlin-aligned authoritarian predecessor, the Saakashvili-led United National Movement. Its detrimental, anti-state stance became increasingly evident after signing a strategic partnership agreement with China in late July 2023, delivering yet another blow to the U.S.-Georgia Strategic Partnership established in 2009. The practical implementation of this partnership occurred in May 2024, when control over the construction of the Anaklia deep-sea port was granted to a controversial Chinese-Singaporean consortium, thereby opening the door to increased Chinese influence in the East-West Corridor.
This occurred amidst significant public dissent, since the governing party reinstated the contentious legislation known as ‘Organization Pursuing the Interests of a Foreign Power.’ The measure, resembling repressive laws in Russia, sparked considerable concerns over its ability to compromise civil rights and diminish democratic ideals in the nation. The vague phrasing of the bill permitted subjective interpretation and possible misuse by authorities, instigating concerns over politically driven repression of dissenting voices. The Georgian Parliament’s ratification of the measure in May swiftly provoked civil disobedience, galvanizing tens of thousands of individuals to demonstrate in the streets. As public attention focused on the controversial “foreign agent” legislation, demonstrators, alarmed by the potential suppression of democratic freedoms and the rising influence of Russia, gathered in front of the Parliament to voice their dissent.
On May 29, following oligarch-centric anticonstitutional actions, the Georgian Parliament swiftly advanced amendments to the tax code, commonly referred to as ‘offshore law,’ which granted a series of tax breaks for companies and individuals relocating assets from tax havens to Georgia. This legislation, enacted amidst public concerns about the foreign agents’ statute, has established Georgia as a prospective center for covert financial transactions. Critics caution that it may allow Georgian Dream’s wealthy founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, with his associates and sanctioned Russian billionaires, to circumvent Western sanctions by creating a financial haven in Georgia. By allowing the influx of offshore wealth, the law risks undermining international sanctions and raises concerns about the implications for transparency, accountability, and the nation’s international standing.
Following the Georgian government’s nationally detrimental inclination toward Russia and China, it began to pull closer to Iran, which has been actively seeking ways for its influence in the South Caucasus. In July, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze participated at the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, among officials from recognized terrorist groups, including Hamas. Kobakhidze’s later presence at former President Raisi’s burial highlighted Georgia’s departure from a pro-Western position, perhaps indicating a nuanced reaction to recent American critiques of his administration.
The alteration in Georgia’s geopolitical alignment occurred with a rise in anti-Western discourse, as Georgian leaders increasingly depicted Western policies as harmful to national sovereignty. Pro-government media outlets have played a crucial role in disseminating these narratives, portraying the U.S. and EU as meddlesome forces seeking to undermine Georgia’s stability. These publications often allege that Washington and Brussels finance opposition organizations and meddle in Georgian politics, characterizing these acts as dangers to the country’s stability and sovereignty. The persistent proliferation of anti-Western sentiments significantly influencing public opinion in Georgia and the nation’s geopolitical alignment shifting towards Russia and China prompts a crucial inquiry: What will be the West’s response?
Political polarization is fueling an acute crisis in Georgia, presenting the United States and European Union with a critical dilemma: how to address Georgia’s drift toward anti-Western authoritarian powers without losing their influence in the region or alienating this nation entirely. The paradigms directing the post-Soviet transition have unequivocally failed and are now fundamentally outdated, forcing the immediate development of new geostrategic conceptions that correspond with contemporary reality. Georgia, with a unique historical and geopolitical legacy, occupies a vital location at the confluence of Europe and Asia, highlighting the significance of its stability and strategic alignment for regional security and the broader interests of Western powers. The primary aim within this framework should be to place Georgia as a dependable and strategic military ally of the United States, akin to Israel’s role in the Middle East. This cooperation will augment Georgia’s military capabilities against external threats and strengthen its position as a key player in maintaining peace and stability in the Caucasus region. By fostering deeper military cooperation, ensuring access to advanced technology, and aligning strategic priorities, Georgia could evolve into a linchpin for U.S. geopolitical interests in this vital part of the world. This approach would also stress how important Georgia’s sovereignty and independence are, making it easier for the country to stand up to authoritarian pressures and building a stronger security system that supports democratic values and common goals.
To achieve this, it is crucial to support new transformational leadership and a reform-oriented movement that can articulate and implement a progressive strategic vision.